APC Presidential Primary: Tinubu’s Imminent Coronation on June 7

In my last article titled “7 Days to APC’s Presidential Primary: Who’s for whom?”, published May 22nd before the primary was later postponed, I narrowed down the All Progressives Congress (APC) presidential primary contest to 4 serious aspirants out of the 23 that submitted their presidential nomination and expression of interest forms, namely: Senator Bola Tinubu, Rt. Hon. Rotimi Amaechi, Vice President Yemi Osinbajo and Governor Kayode Fayemi.

In the referenced article, I projected the results of the primaries as reproduced herein: “After all said and done, the projected result of the APC presidential primary will look like this: Tinubu—1,227 votes (52.8%), Amaechi—192 votes (8.2%), Osinbajo—154 votes (6.6%), Badaru—147 votes (6.3%), Lawan—128 votes (5.5%), Akpabio—93 votes (4.0%), Mokelu—63 votes (2.7%), Bello—60 votes (2.6%), Fayemi—56 votes (2.4%), Ayade—54 votes (2.3%), Nnamani—51 votes (2.2%), Umahi—39 votes (1.7%), Onu—26 votes (1.1%), Okorocha—16 votes (0.7%) and Nwajiuba—16 votes (0.7%). In summary, Tinubu will likely emerge as APC presidential candidate while Amaechi will come second. Osinbajo will be 3rd, Badaru 4th and Lawan 5th.”  

Three events on Saturday, June 4 have necessitated a revision of the projected results of the forthcoming presidential primary. The first is the confirmation of June 7 as the elective convention date as evidenced by the release of the convention timetable by the national secretariat of APC. The second is the decision by Northern Governors in the APC to cede the presidential ticket to the South while the third and most important, is the decision of President Buhari to call for a level-playing field by not endorsing any aspirant during his meeting with them last night. Of all the presidential aspirants, only one, Bola Tinubu, wants an elective convention whereas others have been working assiduously to get Buhari to anoint them or endorse them or just impose them as the party’s presidential candidate by fiat under the guise of ‘consensus’. These endorsement-searching aspirants include Amaechi, Osinbajo and the tricky aspirant, Ahmed Lawan. They knew they stood no chance in a contest with Tinubu without Buhari imposing them, hence their resort to sponsoring several media articles in the last few weeks on a phantom ‘expected’ Buhari endorsement. Anyway, all the aspirants banking on anointing lost their deposits yesternight and their camps were visibly shocked when the meeting with Buhari ended without even a drop of water let alone palm oil. They will now have to test their popularity among party delegates at Eagle Square, Abuja.

The Saturday events have triggered a wave of realignments and redrawn the electoral map ahead of June 7. First, the presidential ambition of Senate President Ahmed Lawan, Governor Mohammed Badaru and Governor Yahaya Bello has ended and their states’ votes are up for grabs. Who will get them? I will come back to this shortly. Second, in the last article, I wrote that “Of the 19 states, two negotiator presidential aspirants, Governor Ben Ayade of Cross River and Senator Godswill Akpabio of Akwa Ibom, control the party structures in their respective states. Option 1 for both aspirants is to sell their delegates to the highest bidder and here, Tinubu will be in pole position to buy given his vast financial warchest. If they do not sell and want to show political gravitas at the convention venue, both of them will secure 100% of the delegates’ votes from their respective states. I bet on the latter option because the essence of the negotiators showing political gravitas would be to convince whoever emerges as the APC presidential candidate that they are relevant in their states and can deliver the state to the candidate in the February 2023 presidential election.”  I can confirm that Governor Ben Ayade and Senator Godswill Akpabio having realized they have no viable path to the presidential ticket have now decided to back Bola Tinubu. Of course, something has to give. It wouldn’t be for free. Therefore, the delegates’ votes in Yobe State (previously for Lawan), Jigawa State (previously for Badaru), Kebbi State (previously for Badaru, Bagudu’s ally), Kogi State (previously for Yahaya Bello), Cross River (previously for Ayade) and Akwa Ibom (previously for Akpabio) are now available for the serious contenders.

Given the above, I project that Cross River and Akwa Ibom will vote for Tinubu. Yobe, Jigawa and Kebbi will also vote for Tinubu, not because they want to, but because they know that the leadership in the Northern vote-bank states (i.e. Kano, Katsina, Kaduna and Borno) are resolute in their belief that Tinubu is the only formidable candidate that can face Atiku. Therefore, they must be seen to be aligning with the popular movement so as to have some leverage to make demands in the event that Tinubu defeats Atiku in February 2023. I project that Yahaya Bello will refuse to stand down and will participate in the primary. Well, he will get his state’s 60 votes and that will be all for him. In the results projection in my last article, Kaduna was dicey for Tinubu as it was difficult to read Nasir El-Rufai. Ogun too was shaky. I can now confirm and call Kaduna for Tinubu. Regardless of who Governor Dapo Abiodun decides to back after Tinubu took umbrage at him last Thursday, Tinubu will get at least 33% of the delegates’ votes in Ogun State by riding on the political machinery of his west-to-west protégé, Sen Solomon Olamilekan (Yayi) who has made it emphatically clear that “Ti Tinubu la wan’se” (we are for Tinubu) while addressing members of his Ogun West senatorial district some days ago.

Just as I mentioned in the last article, after all said and done, the updated projected result of the APC presidential primary on June 7 will now look like this: Tinubu—1,432 votes (61.6%), Osinbajo—252 votes (10.8%), Amaechi—217 votes (9.3%), Mokelu—88 votes (3.8%), Nnamani—77 votes (3.3%), Umahi—72 votes (3.1%), Fayemi—66 votes (2.9%), Bello—60 votes (2.6%), Onu—26 votes (1.1%), Nwajiuba—26 votes (1.1%) and Okorocha—7 votes (0.3%). In summary, Tinubu will emerge as APC presidential candidate on June 7 while Osinbajo will come second and Amaechi will be 3rd. This means Tinubu’s projected votes have increased by 17% from 1,227 as at May 22nd to 1,432 as at today, June 5th out of the 2,322 delegates’ votes on offer. With this knowledge, the imminent special national convention will be mere formality. It is the coronation of Tinubu as APC’s presidential flagbearer in disguise. Let no one be fooled and let other aspirants moderate their expectations. Saturday events bolstered Tinubu’s chances significantly. June 4 was the Saturday that Tinubu clinched the party’s ticket.

What is there to watch out for next since Nigerians like political suspense and drama? The style, strategy and platform with which aspirants who have decided to withdraw or step down will use in making their announcements. That is the next drama. Will they do so through a press conference, at the convention ground like Tambuwal did for Atiku, via a press release or a clip released through social media and so on? The next 2 days will tell. Grab your popcorn for the withdrawal/step-down announcement ‘entertainment’! Also, will there be any surprises in the next few days? The only major surprise will be Osinbajo stepping down and backing Tinubu, or backing Fayemi or just plainly withdrawing from the race without backing anybody, having seen he has no viable path to the ticket. I understand this is currently the thought in his political camp after last night’s unforgettable disappointment with the oil that refused to drop. Will Amaechi pull out of the race given that his camp is also in disarray after last night’s disappointment? Will Yahaya Bello formally throw in the towel? Time will tell.

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 Dr Gbenga Adefulu, an economist, digital media consultant and public affairs analyst writes from Ikeja, Lagos. He can be reached through gbengaadefulublog@gmail.com and blogs at https://gbengaadefulumusings.blogspot.com/

 


 

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